Myths

Note - this blog was ended in the summer of 2007. I left just a few old but popular posts online. The "Myths" item is a just a big collection of some old posts.

I saw these myths passed off as true in the news media, so of course, they must be true!

Myth: Toxins, sedentary life styles, environmental hazards, poor nutritional choices and violent crime are causing serious health problems for Americans.
Truth: Much to my surprise, heart disease, stroke, lung diseases and overall cancer rates are in decline and have been for a long time. The decline in the death rate is even accelerating - meaning dropping faster than ever (also see the "Related Stories" on that link). Even more interesting is that the incidence at which new cancers are diagnosed has fallen in spite of better diagnostics. Life expectancy is at an all time high and on average, increased by 2 years in just the past ten years (approximately)!

Myth: Windows Vista is an upgrade to Windows XP.
Truth: Many any consumers think XP is an upgrade to Vista.

Myth: Home lighting uses 20% of household electricity.
Truth: 8.8%. For typical homes, the figure is anywhere from 5% to 10%. Switching from incandescent lights to compact florescent, assuming all existing lights are incandescent and can be switched, would reduce that 8.8% portion of household electricity by up to 75%. Thirty years ago, lighting was a larger percentage - but since then most homes have added electricity hogs like HDTVs, VCRs, fancy appliances and several computers, thereby decreasing the share used by lighting.

Myth: Switching to compact florescent lights will save consumers money.
Truth: For lights that are frequently used and assuming compact florescent bulbs do indeed last longer this is likely true (about 1/3d of mine have had actual lifetimes less than incandescent bulbs). This is not true when little used lights are replaced with compact florescent bulbs - such as lighting in closets, some hallways, automatic on/off motion sensing exterior lights, lighting under stairs, in utility rooms and in many bathrooms. The U.S. government passed a law that will ban the sale of most incandescent lights starting in 2012 - which means you will have to install these lights in places were they do not make sense. Philips, a lighting manufacturer, was a huge supporter of this law because they will make far more money per lighting unit sold.

Myth: "Red light running" cameras are an effective tool to reducing crashes caused by cars running red lights.
Truth: Red light cameras increase crashes and result in higher auto insurance premiums charged in the areas where they are installed. Like septic system versus sewers (see below), red light cameras are sold to the public as "improving safety". The real reason, surprisingly, is that they increase revenue not only to the city (RoboRevenue) but also to insurance companies who have been pushing for red light cameras. The data now show that red light cameras lead to an increase in overall crashes - and the insurers use that as an excuse to increase auto insurance premiums. The best way to reduce intersection crashes is to re-design the intersection; simple methods like adding one second to a "yellow light" phase can dramatically reduce red-light crashes.

Myth: Businesses hate government regulation.
Truth: Many businesses love government regulation and use regulation to their advantage while publicly complaining about regulations. (They only dislike regulations that help their competitors or harm their own business.) Two examples in the news. First, lighting manufacturers publicly complain that eliminating incandescent lights will raise the cost of lighting to consumers. Privately, they love this since they will sell higher priced products. Second, an executive at General Motors complained new government mileage requirements will raise the average car price by up to $7,000. Privately, they love this new opportunity to increase profits. Numerous industries employ lobbyists at the State and Federal level to pass regulations that - they hope - will benefit themselves while harming potential competition.

Numerous businesses and industries - from the accounting scandals of Kenneth Lay and Andy Fastow's Enron crimes to the collapse of MCI WorldCom and on and on - to today's banking crimes - these overpaid CEOs, by their own actions, are literally pleading for adult supervision. Effective businesses know how to turn externalities to their advantage, including regulation.

Myth: A drought in Australia, caused by global warming, is a significant cause of global rice shortages. It must be true because the NY Times wrote that.

Truth: Rice production in Australia normally totals 1.3 million tons. Total global rice production is 421 million tons. Therefore, Australia's contribution to the global total is 0.3%, but less during their drought year. Even though rice production is increasing by 1.8% this year, global demand is increasing faster - to 424 million tons. The main problem is that yield increased by about 2.5 to 3.5% per year in the 80's but fell to a 0.74% growth rate in the 90s while demand is increasing faster than production. Why the NY Times led with the anecdotal story out of Australia is mystifying since it is just one of many components to the problem, including that climate change has both good and bad effects on rice growing.

Myth: 95% of dieters who lose weight will gain it all back.
Truth: That claim comes from one study in the early 1950s involving just 100 subjects on one particular diet (reference) and may be insufficient for a precise statement about the likelihood of keeping weight off. Other studies have found that many people who lose weight do gain much of it back.

Myth? Obesity is a global epidemic.
Truth: The obesity epidemic mantra has been promoted, very effectively, by the International Association for the Study of Obesity (IASO). Their Taskforce defined the Body Mass Index (BMI) calculation which was then adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and is now the basis for defining who is overweight or obese. If your BMI is 26 or higher, you are overweight. The new definition, adopted in the 1990s, instantly redefined a lot of people as overweight. What is not disclosed is that the IASO is a very effective lobbying group funded almost entirely by the drug industry and "diet food" manufacturers. The sponsors are also listed in the IASO's most recent annual report, all of whom profit from the new "war on obesity" by selling prescription diet drugs and diet food regimens. Muddling the issue further are recent studies, such as the one by Katherine Flegal of the CDC, that have found lower mortality amongst those who are somewhat overweight versus those who are not. More here. For another example of how the profit motive has led to incorrect public health policy, then read this.

Myth: Southern California wild fires in 2007 were caused by global warming.
Truth: Some politicians and activists said wild land fires in Southern California in late summer of 2007 were caused by human-induced climate change. Months later we now know that actual causes of the fires were arson and power lines that blew down or arced during high winds especially where new home developments (and power lines) were added to high fire danger areas. These fires were caused by human activity but not by human-induced global warming.

Myth: The United States faces a severe shortage of scientists and engineers.
Truth: Several recent reports including one from the Urban Institute have found that the U.S. produces up to three times more graduates in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) than it has annual job openings. According to a report in Science Careers (from the American Association for the Advancement of Science) alleged shortages are an enduring myth. Universities are exempt from the limit on H-1B visa hiring through a loophole negotiated as a way to get universities to support industry's desire to keep tech salaries low. Since 2001, real salaries in the IT sector have declined by 8% (after inflation), hardly indicating a terrible shortage. The median salary in IT also dropped in the past year in non-inflation adjusted dollars.

Myth: Automobiles are "the largest producer of greenhouse gases in the United States".
Truth: Nature itself is the largest producer of "greenhouse" gases (says NASA) but if we restrict this to human-produced greenhouse gases, according to the EPA, 39% of human caused emissions in the U.S. are due to electricity generation, 27% are due to industrial operations (most of which is electricity generation) and 20% are due to the automobile category. Transportation, including trains, ships, airlines and heavy truck transport is about 30% of the total but autos, light trucks and SUVs are 66% of the transport sector, hence 20%. Raising efficiency of the auto category, assuming autos run on gas, from 24 to 35 mpg, as the government recently required, may cut that 20% contribution to 14% (assuming all other emissions remain constant).

Myth: Prescription medications are effective at treating many health problems.
Truth: Recent reports have been published regarding the ineffectiveness of statins (and the high likelihood of serious side effects) and that many anti-depressant drugs may be mostly worthless. (A large review of studies indicates that Prozac and similar drugs may be almost entirely worthless.)

'One dirty little secret of modern medicine is that many drugs work only in a minority of people. "There's a tendency to assume drugs work really well, but people would be surprised by the actual magnitude of the benefits," says Dr. Steven Woloshin, associate professor of medicine at Dartmouth Medical School.'

How did this happen? Publication bias is part of the problem - half the studies show a benefit and get published. The other half show no benefits or risks but get buried and do not get published. A few years ago, the Wall Street Journal quoted a executive vice president at a pharmaceutical firm saying that about 70% of prescribed drugs essentially do not work. I asked people in the pharma industry if that were true and they responded with (roughly) "That sounds about right". I do not know if this is good or bad - but its is unfortunate that most patients are not aware that they may see no benefits from prescribed medications - and may see actual harm, including harm that results in hospitalization. We spend many tens of billions of dollars every year on medications that frequently do not work - in part due to huge advertising campaigns by the pharma companies exaggerating the benefits of their drugs, such as occurred with Celebrex and Viox. Ask your doctor "What is the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) and the Number Needed to cause Harm (NNH)?" for your prescribed medications. An NNT of 30 means that for 30 people treated, one will benefit.

Myth: Household septic tank and drain fields must be replaced with "sanitary sewer systems" to insure water quality.
Truth: The primary purpose of sewer systems is typically to enable a greater density of home developments versus septic drain fields. The water quality issue is mostly a "red herring" raised to create political support since most people will be in favor of good water quality but not necessarily in favor of increased population and its effects: traffic jams, longer lines at stores, increased pollution and over crowded school classrooms.

When homes have septic systems, the minimum lot size must have space for two septic drain fields - the original and a possible future replacement. Each drain field size is determined by the soil characteristics and the size of the home (how many people will be living there). Space is set aside for a second drain field in case the field fails. Sewer lines are brought into older neighborhoods to replace drain fields so the density of home developments can be increased. This is buried in my County's Master Plan but they publicly sold the project based on the need to protect environmental water quality.

We have watched developers tear down old homes on large lots and replace with as many as 5 new homes on tiny lots - beginning as soon as one day after the sewer projects were completed. Many of the new homes are 3,000 sq ft and larger on 4,500 to 5,000 sq ft lots and replaced 1,000 square foot homes on 35,000 sq ft lots. Government employees and politicians like greater home density because it increases property tax revenue collections.

A quick Google search found that sewer systems are installed around the country specifically for increasing tax revenues. Huge luxury homes are rarely an improvement to the environment.

Myth: Hybrid metro buses are great for the environment - saving gas and reducing pollution.
Truth: Perhaps some day but not yet. Hybrid buses emit the same level of particulate emissions as conventional diesel buses. Fuel consumption is supposed to be about 10% less than the diesel buses they replace with hopes this will eventually reach up to 50% reduction (diesel buses typically get 3 to 6 mpg with variations depending on hills, stops, passenger loads). Yet the largest hybrid bus system in the world has found that hybrids get worse gas mileage than diesel buses. (They do offer a benefit for bus systems and passengers when the buses must run in poorly ventilated tunnels since the bus can then run as an electric bus - but so could older dual mode buses that obtained electricity from overhead trolley lines.)

Hybrid buses cost about $500,000 each or about 67% more than diesel buses. Even with hoped for fuel savings, hybrid buses and their operation are significantly more expensive without yet delivering significant benefits. Hydrogen powered buses are far worse - costing about 30 times more to operate per mile than diesel buses. Transporting passengers by helicopter would be less expensive - ever so mindful of costs - not! - California plans to expand the use of hydrogen fuel buses since the new buses cost six times more than diesels.

Myth: A Russian transport ship reached the North Pole without the aid of an ice breaker - the first time in history a ship did this without the aid of an ice breaker!
Truth: This is my all time favorite media myth. About 2 years ago, the NY Times ran a feature story about a cargo ship named the Akademik Federov reaching the North Pole without an ice breaker due to melting Arctic ice. The NY Times used this to create a speculative news story about how melting ice would open the Arctic to global commerce by ordinary cargo ships. But the entire story was based on a false premise: The Federov, like about 70 Russian cargo transport ships, is also an icebreaker. In fact, the Federov can break through ice packs better than the best U.S. ice breaker. I understand the NY Times has legions of fact checkers, but alas, they have not yet learned to use Google as the information was readily available via Google. I wrote to the NY Times corrections email address with a link to the manufacturer's specifications. The NY Times did not acknowledge my note and made no correction to their false report. Presumably, they did not wish to have facts get in the way of a great narrative. "Fact Free Reporting" is considered hip in journalism circles.


This post was written and updated December 24, 2007 through April 28th, 2008.